Long-term Financing: Exploring the Recent Advances in the Brazilian Bond Market
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Lucas Boareto da Aparecida
Sergio Giovanetti Lazzarini
Adriana Bruscato Bortoluzzo
Abstract
Context: in Brazil, there was an expansion of private funding via bond issuances, especially since 2017. Before that period, the sources of long-term financing were concentrated on public funding. Objective: this study aims to explore the main factors that could have positively affect Brazilian bond market and if it would be possible to improve project financing through this debt instruments. Methods: using mixed methods with econometric tests and qualitative interview analysis, this study assesses which were the factors that supported this growth and if there is any difference across industries. Results: we found that a change in the market trend has indeed happened around 2017, and it was more pronounced in specific industries such as electricity. Interviewees suggested that increases in demand (possibly triggered by the reduction of public sources of funding and the fall in local interest rates) could be the main factors that supported this change in trend. Conclusions: therefore, this study reinforces the importance of local market conditions and government policies affecting the relative attractiveness of private versus public sources of corporate investment.
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Aparecida, L. B. da, Lazzarini, S. G., & Bortoluzzo, A. B. (2021). Long-term Financing: Exploring the Recent Advances in the Brazilian Bond Market. Journal of Contemporary Administration, 26(2), e210076. https://doi.org/10.1590/1982-7849rac2022210076.en
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Theoretical-empirical Articles
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References
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Campbell, D. T., & Fiske, D. W. (1959). Convergent and discriminant validation by the multitrait-multimethod matrix. Psychological Bulletin, 56(2), 81–105. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0046016
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Dinç, I. S. (2005). Politicians and banks: Political influences on government-owned banks in emerging markets. Journal of Financial Economics, 77(2), 453–479. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2004.06.011
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Elo, S., & Kyngäs, H. (2008). The qualitative content analysis process. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 62(1), 107–115. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2648.2007.04569.x
Ferraz, J. C., & Coutinho, L. (2019). Investment policies, development finance and economic transformation: Lessons from BNDES. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 48, 86–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2017.11.008
Ferreira, N., Menezes, R., & Oliveira, M. M. (2013). Structural Breaks and Cointegration Analysis in the EU Developed Markets. International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, 3(4), 652-661. https://doi.org/10.35808/ijfirm/86
Gerschenkron, A. (1962). Economic backwardness in historical perspective. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Retrieved from https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674226005
Hansen, B. E. (2001). The new econometrics of structural change: Dating breaks in U.S. labour productivity. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(4), 117–128. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.15.4.117
Heij, C., Boer, P., Franses, P. H., Kloek, T., & Dijk, H. K. Van (2004). Econometric methods with applications in business and economics. New York: Oxford University Press.
Hsieh, H. F., & Shannon, S. E. (2005). Three approaches to qualitative content analysis. Qualitative Health Research, 15(9), 1277–1288. https://doi.org/10.1177/1049732305276687
Jick, T. D. (1979). Mixing qualitative and quantitative methods: Triangulation in action. Administrative Science Quarterly, 24(4), 602–611. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2392366
Jouini, J., & Boutahar, M. (2005). Evidence on structural changes in U.S. time series. Economic Modelling, 22(3), 391–422. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2004.06.003
Khurana, I. K., Martin, X., & Pereira, R. (2006). Financial development and the cash flow sensitivity of cash. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 41(4), 787-807. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/27647274
Lazzarini, S. G, Lima, T, & Makhoul, P. (2017). Como aumentar a atração de capital privado para financiar projetos de infraestrutura no Brasil. In A. C. Pastore (Org.). Infraestrutura: Eficiência e ética. São Paulo: Elsevier.
Lazzarini, S. G., Musacchio, A., Bandeira-de-Mello, R., & Marcon, R. (2015). What do state-owned development banks do? Evidence from BNDES, 2002-09. World Development, 66, 237–253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.08.016
Love, I. (2003). Financial development and financing constraints: International evidence from the structural investment model. Review of Financial Studies, 16(3), 765–791. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhg013
Machado, L., Grimaldi, D. S., Albuquerque, B. E., & Santos, L. O. (2014). Additionality of countercyclical credit: Evaluating the impact of BNDES’ PSI on the investment of industrial firms. Rio de Janeiro: Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social. Retrieved from http://web.bndes.gov.br/bib/jspui/handle/1408/7758
Machado, L., Martini, R. A., & Gama, M. M. da (2017). Does BNDES Innovation Credit Boost Firms’ R&D Expenditures? Evidence from Brazilian Panel Data. BNDES, [S.l. : s.n.], 1–17. Retrieved from http://web.bndes.gov.br/bib/jspui/handle/1408/13595
Maksimovic, V., & Demirgüc-Kunt, A. (2002). Funding growth in bank-based and market-based financial systems: evidence from firm-level data. Journal of Financial Economics, 65, 337–363. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(02)00145-9
Ministério da Economia. (2021). Boletim Informativo de Debêntures Incentivadas - Janeiro 2021. 86, 1–68. Retrieved from https://www.gov.br/economia/pt-br/centrais-de-conteudo/publicacoes/boletins/boletim-de-debentures-incentivadas/2021/spe-me-boletim-debentures-lei-12-431-jan-2021.pdf/view
Musacchio, A. (2009). Experiments in financial democracy: Corporate governance and financial development in Brazil, 1882 - 1950. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
Musacchio, A., & Lazzarini, S. G. (2015). Reinventando o capitalismo de Estado: O Leviatã nos negócios: Brasil e outros países. São Paulo: Editora Schwarcz. Retrieved from https://www.companhiadasletras.com.br/detalhe/trechos/75018.pdf
Musacchio, A., Lazzarini, S., Makhoul, P., & Simmons, E. (2017). The role and impact of development banks a review of their founding, focus, and influence. November, 1–89. Retrieved from http://people.brandeis.edu/~aldom/papers/The Role and Impact of Development Banks - 3-9-2017.pdf
Najberg, S. (1989). Privatização de recursos públicos: Os empréstimos do sistema BNDES ao setor privado nacional com correção monetária parcial (Dissertation). Pontifícia Universidade Católica, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil. Retrieved from http://web.bndes.gov.br/bib/jspui/handle/1408/15687
Paula, L. F. de, & Faria, J. A. de (2012). Mercado de títulos de dívida corporativa privada no Brasil: Aspectos estruturais e evolução recente. Revista de Economia Contemporanea, 16(1), 107–137. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1415-98482012000100006
Porta, R. La, Lopez-de-Silanes, F. Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1998). Law and finance. Journal of Political Economy, 106(6): 1113-1155. https://doi.org/10.1086/250042
Perron, P. (2006). Dealing with structural breaks. Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, 1, 278–352. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2006.04.004
Sale, J. E. M., Lohfeld, L. H., & Brazil, K. (2002). Revisiting the quantitative-qualitative debate: Implications for mixed-methods research. Quality and Quantity, 36(1), 43–53. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1014301607592
Shaoul, J. (2005). A critical financial analysis of the private finance initiative: Selecting a financing method or allocating economic wealth? Critical Perspectives on Accounting, 16(4), 441–471. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpa.2003.06.001
Stemler, S. (2001). An overview of content analysis. Practical Assessment, Research and Evaluation, 7(17), 2000–2001. https://doi.org/10.7275/z6fm-2e34
Stokes, D., & Bergin, R. (2006). Methodology or “methodolatry”? An evaluation of focus groups and depth interviews. Qualitative Market Research, 9(1), 26–37. https://doi.org/10.1108/13522750610640530
Torres, E. T. Filho, & Costa, F. N. da. (2012). BNDES e o financiamento do desenvolvimento. Economia e Sociedade, 21(spe), 975–1009. https://doi.org/10.1590/s0104-06182012000400011
Triner, G. D. (2000). Banking and economic development: Brazil, 1889–1930. London, UK: Palgrave Macmillan.
Wajnberg, D. (2014). Debêntures de infraestrutura: emissões realizadas e perspectivas. Revista do BNDES, 41, 331-378. Retrieved from https://www.bndes.gov.br/SiteBNDES/export/sites/default/bndes_pt/Galerias/Arquivos/conhecimento/revista/rev4108.pdf
Webb, E. J., Campbell, D. T., Schwartz, R. D., & Sechrest, L. (1966). Unobtrusive measures: Nonreactive research in the social sciences. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 368(1), 229-230. https://doi.org/10.1177/000271626636800179
White, M. D., & Marsh, E. E. (2006). Content analysis: A flexible methodology. Library Trends, 55(1), 22–45. https://doi.org/10.1353/lib.2006.0053
Zarei, A., Ariff, M., Hook, L. S., & Nassir, A. M. (2015). Identifying multiple structural breaks in exchange rate series in a finance research. Pertanika Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 23, 155–166. Retrieved from https://pureportal.coventry.ac.uk/en/publications/identifying-multiple-structural-breaks-in-exchange-rate-series-in
Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251–270. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1992.10509904
Aghion, B. A. De (1999). Development banking. Journal of Development Economics, 58(1), 83–100. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-3878(98)00104-7
Alles, L. (2001). Asset securitization and structured financing: future prospects and challenges for emerging market countries. IMF Waking Paper, WP/02/6(October), 555–582.
Amsden, A. H. (1992). Asia’s Next Giant: South Korea and Late Industrialization. USA: Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/0195076036.001.0001
Andrews, D. W. K. (1993). Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point. Econometrica, 61(4), 821–856. http://www.jstor.org/stable/2951764
Armijo, L. E., & Rhodes, S. D. (2017). Explaining infrastructure underperformance in Brazil: Cash, political institutions, corruption, and policy Gestalts. Policy Studies, 38(3), 231–247. https://doi.org/10.1080/01442872.2017.1290227
Barboza, R. D. M., Furtado, M., & Humberto, G. (2018). A atuação histórica do BNDES: O que os dados têm a nos dizer? Brazilian Journal of Political Economy, 39(3), 544-560. https://doi.org/10.1590/0101-35172019-2910
Beck, T., & Levine, R. (2002). Industry growth and capital allocation: Does having a market- or bank-based system matter? Journal of Financial Economics, 64(2), 147–180. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(02)00074-0
Bragança, G., Pessoa, M., & Souza, G. (2015). Evolução recente do mercado de debêntures no brasil: as debêntures incentivadas. Rio de Janeiro: IPEA, Texto para discussão 2158. https://www.ipea.gov.br/portal/images/stories/PDFs/TDs/td_2158.pdf
Bruck, N. (1998). The role of development banks in the twenty-first century. Journal of Emerging Markets, 3(3), 39–67. Retrieved from https://www.adfiap.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/10/the-role-of-development-banks-in-the-twenty-first-century.pdf
Cabral, S., & Krane, D. (2018). Civic festivals and collaborative governance. International Review of Administrative Sciences, 84(1), 185–205. https://doi.org/10.1177/0020852315615196
Campbell, D. T., & Fiske, D. W. (1959). Convergent and discriminant validation by the multitrait-multimethod matrix. Psychological Bulletin, 56(2), 81–105. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0046016
Castro, F., Kalatzis, A. E. G., & Martins-Filho, C. (2015). Financing in an emerging economy: Does financial development or financial structure matter? Emerging Markets Review, 23, 96–123. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2015.04.012
Clarke, A. P. N., & Yaros, P. S. (1988). Research blenders: commentary and response: commentary: transitions to new methodologies in nursing sciences. Nursing Science Quarterly, 1(4), 147-149. https://doi.org/10.1177/089431848800100406
Dinç, I. S. (2005). Politicians and banks: Political influences on government-owned banks in emerging markets. Journal of Financial Economics, 77(2), 453–479. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2004.06.011
Ehlers, T. (2014). Understanding the challenges for infrastructure finance. BIS Working Papers, (454). Retrieved from https://www.bis.org/publ/work454.pdf
Elo, S., & Kyngäs, H. (2008). The qualitative content analysis process. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 62(1), 107–115. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2648.2007.04569.x
Ferraz, J. C., & Coutinho, L. (2019). Investment policies, development finance and economic transformation: Lessons from BNDES. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 48, 86–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2017.11.008
Ferreira, N., Menezes, R., & Oliveira, M. M. (2013). Structural Breaks and Cointegration Analysis in the EU Developed Markets. International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, 3(4), 652-661. https://doi.org/10.35808/ijfirm/86
Gerschenkron, A. (1962). Economic backwardness in historical perspective. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. Retrieved from https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674226005
Hansen, B. E. (2001). The new econometrics of structural change: Dating breaks in U.S. labour productivity. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(4), 117–128. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.15.4.117
Heij, C., Boer, P., Franses, P. H., Kloek, T., & Dijk, H. K. Van (2004). Econometric methods with applications in business and economics. New York: Oxford University Press.
Hsieh, H. F., & Shannon, S. E. (2005). Three approaches to qualitative content analysis. Qualitative Health Research, 15(9), 1277–1288. https://doi.org/10.1177/1049732305276687
Jick, T. D. (1979). Mixing qualitative and quantitative methods: Triangulation in action. Administrative Science Quarterly, 24(4), 602–611. Retrieved from http://www.jstor.org/stable/2392366
Jouini, J., & Boutahar, M. (2005). Evidence on structural changes in U.S. time series. Economic Modelling, 22(3), 391–422. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2004.06.003
Khurana, I. K., Martin, X., & Pereira, R. (2006). Financial development and the cash flow sensitivity of cash. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 41(4), 787-807. Retrieved from https://www.jstor.org/stable/27647274
Lazzarini, S. G, Lima, T, & Makhoul, P. (2017). Como aumentar a atração de capital privado para financiar projetos de infraestrutura no Brasil. In A. C. Pastore (Org.). Infraestrutura: Eficiência e ética. São Paulo: Elsevier.
Lazzarini, S. G., Musacchio, A., Bandeira-de-Mello, R., & Marcon, R. (2015). What do state-owned development banks do? Evidence from BNDES, 2002-09. World Development, 66, 237–253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2014.08.016
Love, I. (2003). Financial development and financing constraints: International evidence from the structural investment model. Review of Financial Studies, 16(3), 765–791. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhg013
Machado, L., Grimaldi, D. S., Albuquerque, B. E., & Santos, L. O. (2014). Additionality of countercyclical credit: Evaluating the impact of BNDES’ PSI on the investment of industrial firms. Rio de Janeiro: Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social. Retrieved from http://web.bndes.gov.br/bib/jspui/handle/1408/7758
Machado, L., Martini, R. A., & Gama, M. M. da (2017). Does BNDES Innovation Credit Boost Firms’ R&D Expenditures? Evidence from Brazilian Panel Data. BNDES, [S.l. : s.n.], 1–17. Retrieved from http://web.bndes.gov.br/bib/jspui/handle/1408/13595
Maksimovic, V., & Demirgüc-Kunt, A. (2002). Funding growth in bank-based and market-based financial systems: evidence from firm-level data. Journal of Financial Economics, 65, 337–363. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(02)00145-9
Ministério da Economia. (2021). Boletim Informativo de Debêntures Incentivadas - Janeiro 2021. 86, 1–68. Retrieved from https://www.gov.br/economia/pt-br/centrais-de-conteudo/publicacoes/boletins/boletim-de-debentures-incentivadas/2021/spe-me-boletim-debentures-lei-12-431-jan-2021.pdf/view
Musacchio, A. (2009). Experiments in financial democracy: Corporate governance and financial development in Brazil, 1882 - 1950. Cambridge, MA: Cambridge University Press.
Musacchio, A., & Lazzarini, S. G. (2015). Reinventando o capitalismo de Estado: O Leviatã nos negócios: Brasil e outros países. São Paulo: Editora Schwarcz. Retrieved from https://www.companhiadasletras.com.br/detalhe/trechos/75018.pdf
Musacchio, A., Lazzarini, S., Makhoul, P., & Simmons, E. (2017). The role and impact of development banks a review of their founding, focus, and influence. November, 1–89. Retrieved from http://people.brandeis.edu/~aldom/papers/The Role and Impact of Development Banks - 3-9-2017.pdf
Najberg, S. (1989). Privatização de recursos públicos: Os empréstimos do sistema BNDES ao setor privado nacional com correção monetária parcial (Dissertation). Pontifícia Universidade Católica, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil. Retrieved from http://web.bndes.gov.br/bib/jspui/handle/1408/15687
Paula, L. F. de, & Faria, J. A. de (2012). Mercado de títulos de dívida corporativa privada no Brasil: Aspectos estruturais e evolução recente. Revista de Economia Contemporanea, 16(1), 107–137. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1415-98482012000100006
Porta, R. La, Lopez-de-Silanes, F. Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. W. (1998). Law and finance. Journal of Political Economy, 106(6): 1113-1155. https://doi.org/10.1086/250042
Perron, P. (2006). Dealing with structural breaks. Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, 1, 278–352. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfj.2006.04.004
Sale, J. E. M., Lohfeld, L. H., & Brazil, K. (2002). Revisiting the quantitative-qualitative debate: Implications for mixed-methods research. Quality and Quantity, 36(1), 43–53. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1014301607592
Shaoul, J. (2005). A critical financial analysis of the private finance initiative: Selecting a financing method or allocating economic wealth? Critical Perspectives on Accounting, 16(4), 441–471. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpa.2003.06.001
Stemler, S. (2001). An overview of content analysis. Practical Assessment, Research and Evaluation, 7(17), 2000–2001. https://doi.org/10.7275/z6fm-2e34
Stokes, D., & Bergin, R. (2006). Methodology or “methodolatry”? An evaluation of focus groups and depth interviews. Qualitative Market Research, 9(1), 26–37. https://doi.org/10.1108/13522750610640530
Torres, E. T. Filho, & Costa, F. N. da. (2012). BNDES e o financiamento do desenvolvimento. Economia e Sociedade, 21(spe), 975–1009. https://doi.org/10.1590/s0104-06182012000400011
Triner, G. D. (2000). Banking and economic development: Brazil, 1889–1930. London, UK: Palgrave Macmillan.
Wajnberg, D. (2014). Debêntures de infraestrutura: emissões realizadas e perspectivas. Revista do BNDES, 41, 331-378. Retrieved from https://www.bndes.gov.br/SiteBNDES/export/sites/default/bndes_pt/Galerias/Arquivos/conhecimento/revista/rev4108.pdf
Webb, E. J., Campbell, D. T., Schwartz, R. D., & Sechrest, L. (1966). Unobtrusive measures: Nonreactive research in the social sciences. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 368(1), 229-230. https://doi.org/10.1177/000271626636800179
White, M. D., & Marsh, E. E. (2006). Content analysis: A flexible methodology. Library Trends, 55(1), 22–45. https://doi.org/10.1353/lib.2006.0053
Zarei, A., Ariff, M., Hook, L. S., & Nassir, A. M. (2015). Identifying multiple structural breaks in exchange rate series in a finance research. Pertanika Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 23, 155–166. Retrieved from https://pureportal.coventry.ac.uk/en/publications/identifying-multiple-structural-breaks-in-exchange-rate-series-in
Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. W. K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit-root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251–270. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.1992.10509904