Persistência e Reação do Mercado aos Resultados Contábeis na Indústria Internacional de Seguros



Artigo principal Conteúdo

Renê Coppe Pimentel

Resumo

Objetivo: este artigo analisa a persistência dos lucros contábeis e a reação do mercado a tais resultados na indústria internacional de seguros. Métodos: a análise considera uma amostra de 307 seguradoras internacionais listadas entre 2004 e 2019 e avalia diversos modelos empíricos quantitativos, incluindo efeitos fixos e pooled OLS robustos. Resultados: os resultados indicam que os fluxos de caixa operacionais são mais persistentes em relação ao componente de accruals dos resultados e que os lucros contábeis são informativos sobre a performance das empresas. No entanto, esses resultados variam significantemente entre os subsegmentos da indústria de seguros. Adicionalmente, a relação entre resultados contábeis e retornos de mercado é afetada pelo desempenho específico das empresas, sugerindo que o mercado revisa suas expectativas sobre o desempenho futuro das empresas de forma mais acentuada quando há redução inesperada nos lucros divulgados (notícias ruins), enquanto a revisão para boas notícias (aumento dos lucros) é menos acentuada. Resultados também mostram que os padrões de risco de mercado indicam associação positiva com o coeficiente de resposta aos lucros, sugerindo um efeito numerador do risco de mercado. No entanto, nenhuma relação significativa foi documentada em relação à parcela dos passivos de seguros e anuidades como proxy de risco setorial específico. Conclusão: em geral, este artigo fornece evidências de que a análise econômica e o escrutínio da persistência dos lucros e a reação do mercado à divulgação de lucros no mercado segurador, e seus subsegmentos, podem fornecer uma avaliação superior dos resultados futuros por investidores, reguladores e acadêmicos.



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Pimentel, R. C. (2021). Persistência e Reação do Mercado aos Resultados Contábeis na Indústria Internacional de Seguros. Revista De Administração Contemporânea, 26(3), e200404. https://doi.org/10.1590/1982-7849rac2022200404.en
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Artigos Teórico-empíricos

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