Avaliação de risco no transporte urbano: uma aplicação ao metrô do Rio de Janeiro

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1590/S1415-65552005000100006
Keywords:
urban transportation management, feasibility studies, decision analysis, decisionmaking

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Luiz Claudio de Souza Campos
Faculdades Ibmec
Luiz Flavio Autran Monteiro Gomes
Stuttgart Universitäet

Abstract

This article presents a decision analysis for the evaluation of risks in the public concession process for the Rio de Janeiro subway Line 3 project. The methodology that was used in the study produced the monetary value of the forecasted consequences from the identified risks. The risk value was added to the financial and economic values of the project and by this the new, aggregated monetary value of the project was determined. From the analysis it was understood that the project has a high level of risk, although it was shown to be financially and economically compatible with the expected return. This monetary valuation of risks contributes to significantly reducing the final value of the project, making it unattractive to potential investors.

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How to Cite
Campos, L. C. de S., & Gomes, L. F. A. M. (1). Avaliação de risco no transporte urbano: uma aplicação ao metrô do Rio de Janeiro. Journal of Contemporary Administration, 9(1), 103-124. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1415-65552005000100006
Issue
Vol. 9 No. 1 (2005): Jan/Mar - 2005
Section
Articles

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Author Biographies

Luiz Claudio de Souza Campos, Faculdades Ibmec

Mestre em Administração pelas Faculdades Ibmec/RJ e Bacharel em Ciências Econômicas pela Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Pesquisador Associado às Faculdades Ibmec/RJ. Administrador de Projetos da Ernst & Young Consulting. Suas áreas de interesse em pesquisa são: avaliação de projetos, gestão de riscos e apoio multicritério à decisão.

Luiz Flavio Autran Monteiro Gomes, Stuttgart Universitäet

Pós-Doutorado pela Stuttgart Universitäet (Alemanha), Doctor of Philosophy pela University of California, Berkeley (E.U.A) e Mestre em Ciências pela Michigan State University (E.U.A.). Professor Titular das Faculdades Ibmec/RJ. Suas áreas de interesse em pesquisa são: apoio multicritério à decisão, tomada de decisão sob risco e métodos quantitativos.