Expectativas, Incerteza Econômica e Sentimento



Artigo principal Conteúdo

Douglas de Medeiros Franco

Resumo

Objetivo: o presente artigo pretende ajudar a desvendar se e como a incerteza econômica interage com a estrutura informacional do sentimento. Métodos: a estratégia empírica baseia-se em teste de causalidade não linear e não paramétrico para investigar a interação entre as variáveis enquanto distribuições. Este artigo constrói principalmente a partir da literatura sobre formação de expectativas. Resultados: foi encontrado que a incerteza com base na mídia (ex-ante) antecede o sentimento, no máximo, até o segundo momento de sua distribuição. Além disso, o sentimento ajuda a prever a estrutura informacional da incerteza dos fundamentos (ex-post) e momentos de ordem superior da incerteza ex-ante. Conclusão: sentimento pode ser considerado um canal para incerteza através do tom das expectativas e de expectativas errôneas. Medidas de incerteza ex-ante podem ainda ajudar a calibrar o cálculo racional custo-benefício da atenção ao atuar como indicador antecedente do maior valor da informação.



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Franco, D. de M. (2022). Expectativas, Incerteza Econômica e Sentimento. Revista De Administração Contemporânea, e210029. https://doi.org/10.1590/1982-7849rac2022210029.en
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Artigos Teórico-empíricos

Referências

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