O modelo e-Score de previsão de falências para empresas de internet

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Orlando Mansur Pereira
Walter Lee Ness Jr.


This study proposes a binomial logit model to estimate the probability of an event of bankruptcy for Internet companies, i.e. companies dependent on e-business. Sixty-one American companies were selected and divided into two samples: 25, which had filed for petition under the US Bankruptcy Code, between 1999 and 2001, and 36, which had not, for the same period. A training sample was randomly selected to determine the model variables and parameters and a holdout sample has confirmed its high accuracy by correctly classifying 95.1% of the total sample of 61 companies, based on annual financial statements as of one year before the bankruptcy's occurrence; and 88.1%, as of two years prior to the same event. Then, the e-Score Model reveals to be very significant by using only three variables, of 63 first analyzed: (i) INT/TL: Interest Expense (Income) to Total Liabilities; (ii) R&D/EMP: Research & Development Expenses to Number of Employees; e (iii) OCF/CL: Operating Cash Flow to Current Liabilities. While (i) and (iii) can be obtained from conventional financial statements, (ii) is innovative, indicating the company which invests in R&D on a per employee basis has a greater chance of survival. In contrast, companies presenting relatively high Net Interest Expenses and low Operating Cash Flow have less chance for survival.


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How to Cite
Pereira, O. M., & Ness Jr., W. L. (1). O modelo e-Score de previsão de falências para empresas de internet. Journal of Contemporary Administration, 8(3), 143-166. https://doi.org/10.1590/S1415-65552004000300008
Author Biographies

Orlando Mansur Pereira, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro

Mestre em Administração de Empresas pela Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio) e Graduado em Ciências Contábeis na Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ). Professor da graduação da Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (IAG/PUC-Rio) e da Pós-Graduação Lato Sensu do IDHGE (CEFET). Atua na Gerência Geral de Finanças Corporativas da Cia Vale do Rio Doce, na coordenação e análise de projetos de Fusões e Aquisições (M&A) de empresas. Suas áreas de interesse em pesquisa são administração financeira e avaliação de empresas.

Walter Lee Ness Jr., Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Doutor de Filosofia (Ph.D.) e Mestre em Administração pelo Massachusetts Institute of Technology e graduado em Economia e Matemática na Yale University. É Professor Associado de Administração da Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (IAG/PUC-Rio).