Subjetive uncertainty in the strategic decision process: a measurement proposal

Abstract

Uncertainty has often been cited to justify difficulties in decision making in business and is associated with differences in the performance of competing firms because in a world of certainty, resource allocation would be optimized and there would not be rents variation among competing economic actors. Thus, understanding uncertainty and how it can be measured is relevant to management theory, and this is our purpose in this study. The definition of uncertainty used herein was derived from the non-ergotic world perspective presented by Keynes and Knight in the 1920s. It is understood as a perceptual phenomenon and described as the individual's perceived ability to predict future events based on the study of past occurrences. The research we conducted to develop and test the scale of measurement occurred in two phases. First we discussed the concept with four directors of the IT industry sector. Based on the results of this phase and previous studies, we proposed a measurement scale in three dimensions: state, effect and response, as suggested by Milliken (1987). The scale was tested by confirmatory factor analysis with data from a sample of 243 managers from different economic sectors. The results of the statistical test of the scale were satisfactory

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